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Value of perfect information
This relates to the amount that we would pay for an item of information such would enable us to forecast the exact conditions of the market and act accordingly.
The EVPI or expected value of perfect information is the expected outcome along with perfect information minus the expected outcome with no perfect information namely the maximum EMV
Illustration
From above table and described that the probabilities are Boom 0.6, steady state 0.3 and recession 0.1 then
When situations of the market are; boom launch product C: profit = 16
When situations of the market are; steady state launch product B: profit = 6
When situations of the market are; recession launch product B: profit = 12
The expected profit along with perfect information will be
(16 x 0.6) + (6 x 0.3) + (12 x 0.1) = 12.6
Our expected profit choosing product C is 7
The maximum price that we would pay for perfect information is 12.6 - 7 = 5.6
a couple q''s
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27-81/3
solve question
Exercise 12c question number 24
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