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As with other products, Specialty faces the decision of how many Weather Teddy units to order for the coming holiday season. Members of the management team suggested order quantities of 15,000, 18,000, 24,000, or 28,000 units. The wide range of order quantities suggested indicates considerable disagreement concerning the market potential. The product management team asks you for an analysis of the stock-out probabilities for various order quantities, an estimate of the profit potential, and for help with making an order quantity recommendation. Specialty expects to sell Weather Teddy for $24 based on a cost of $16 per unit. If inventory remains after the holiday season, Specialty will sell all surplus inventory for $5 per unit. After reviewing the sales history of similar products, Specialty’s senior sales forecaster predicted an expected demand of 20,000 units with a 0.90 probability that demand would be between 10,000 units and Prepare a managerial report that addresses the following issues and recommends an order quantity for the Weather Teddy product. 1. Use the sales forecaster’s prediction to describe a normal probability distribution that can be used to approximate the demand distribution. Sketch the distribution and show its mean and standard deviation. 2. Compute the probability of a stock-out for the order quantities suggested by members of the management team. 3. Compute the projected profit for the order quantities suggested by the management team under three scenarios: worst case in which sales 10,000 units, most likely case in which sales 20,000 units, and best case in which sales 30,000 units. 4. One of Specialty’s managers felt that the profit potential was so great that the order quantity should have a 70% chance of meeting demand and only a 30% chance of any stock-outs. What quantity would be ordered under this policy, and what is the projected profit under the three sales scenarios? 5. Provide your own recommendation for an order quantity and note the associated profit projections. Provide a rationale for your recommendation.
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Bill of material errors can cause serious problems for MRP system calculations of dependant demands. No matter what forecasting technique is used, the probability of a production forecast being exactly correct is almost zero.
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Complete the problems included in the resources below and submit your work in an Excel document. Be sure to show all of your work and clearly label all calculations.
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Burkett, a coin dealer, purchased a dime purportedly minted in 1916 at the Denver Mint for $450. The coin was considered rare and valuable. Burkett, in turn, sold the coin to Beachcomber Coins Inc. for $500. An expert at Beachcomber examined the coin..
Many states have occasionally adopted amnesty programs that allow taxpayers to pay back taxes with reduced penalties. Besides the revenue generated, how are these programs advantageous? Could an amnesty program be used by a state that does not levy a..
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