Find best model with different parameters on arima model

Assignment Help Management Theories

Reference no: EM134034530

Assignment:

In this question, we will try to use time series model such as ARIMA and others to build the model(s) for forecasting the future.

• Create the acf and pacf plots for df_day dataframe.

• Find the best model with different parameters on ARIMA model. The parameter range for p,d,q are all from [0, 1, 2]. In total, you need to find out the best model with lowest Mean Abosulate Error from 27 choices based on the time from "Jul-01-2014" to "Dec-01-2014".

• Using the best model in above steps to forecast the time from "Jan-01-2015" to "Jan-31-2015". Plot the predicted value and the true demand value from "Jan-01-2015" to "Jan-31-2015".

• Could you think of any other model (not as same as ARIMA) could do the forecasting for demand value from "Jan-01-2015" to "Jan-31-2015"? You could choose one model (except ARIMA) and train the model based on the demand value from "Jul-01-2014" to "Dec-01-2014" (same training data as the ARIMA). Hint: there are some resources regarding other time series forecasting models such as prophet here and also the exponential smoothing here.

Reference no: EM134034530

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