Calculate probabilities, payoff values, and information sets, Mathematics

Assignment Help:

Iran is trying to decide whether it should pursue its nuclear weapons program, and its decision will be affected in large measure by what it expects the United States to do. Your assignment is to use an extended-form game to analyze what Iran may choose to do. Your paper will be evaluated according to how correctly it uses the diagramming techniques we covered in class and how clearly the text of your paper explains the logic of the game. You should present the appropriate extended-form game, with the various moves clearly indicated, probabilities associated with various actions, outcomes and their values as well as appropriate information sets

This is the problem:

Imagine Iran initially believes it is playing against a Tough United States (TUS) with probability q, and against a Nice United States (NUS) with probability (1-q). Iran is contemplating making two moves: "C" would be to continue its nuclear weapons program, leading ultimately to the development of a nuclear-weapons capability; "S" would be to stop developing nuclear weapons immediately. Assume Iran chooses "C" initially.

In response to Iran's move of "C", the United States has two moves available: "D" would be to deploy the 7th Fleet on a long-term basis in the Strait of Hormuz and to engage in war games in the area; "ND" would be to not deploy the 7th fleet and to take no militarily hostile action. Iran believes that the probability that TUS would deploy the 7th Fleet is m, while the probability that NUS would deploy the fleet is m'. m > m'

Assume the United States deploys the 7th Fleet. Iran then has a final choice of "C" or "S", as described above. Should Iran choose "C", the United States has a choice to make: "A" would mean launching a military attack on Iran, halting the development of Iran's nuclear weapons for the time being; "NA" would mean to not attack Iran, allowing them to have nuclear weapons. TUS would choose "A" while NUS would choose "NA". Should Iran choose "S" at this stage, TUS would choose "CC" ("Continue Containment") while NUS would choose "R" ("Reward").

In this last stage there are four possible outcomes: Iran chooses C, the US chooses A; Iran chooses C, the US chooses NA; Iran chooses S the US chooses R; and Iran chooses S and the US chooses CC. The values Iran places on these outcomes are 0, 10, 7 and 2, respectively.

a) Draw the tree that captures the extended-form game described above. Make sure you clearly indicate the moves, probabilities, payoff values, and information sets.


Related Discussions:- Calculate probabilities, payoff values, and information sets

Explain the rules of divisibility, Explain the rules of Divisibility ? ...

Explain the rules of Divisibility ? Divisible by 2: If the last digit is a 0, 2, 4, 6, or 8, the number is evenly divisible by 2. Divisible by 2 Not

Geometry, triangular with base AB = 48cm and height CH=16cm is inscribed a ...

triangular with base AB = 48cm and height CH=16cm is inscribed a rectangle MNPQ in which MN: MQ = 9:5 Find MN and MQ

How mathematical ideas grow, HOW MATHEMATICAL IDEAS GROW :  In this sectio...

HOW MATHEMATICAL IDEAS GROW :  In this section we shall consider three aspects of the nature of mathematical ideas, namely, that they progress from concrete to abstract, from part

What did she pay per pound, Mona purchased one and a half pounds of turkey ...

Mona purchased one and a half pounds of turkey at the deli for $6.90. What did she pay per pound? Divide the cost of the turkey by the weight; $6.90 ÷ 1.5 = $4.60.

Determine the widest piece of mail, A mailbox opening is 4.5 inches high an...

A mailbox opening is 4.5 inches high and 5 inches wide. Determine the widest piece of mail able to ?t in the mailbox without bending? a. 9.5 inches b. 2.2 inches c. 6.7 in

Example of normal distribution, The mathematics results of 20 first-year un...

The mathematics results of 20 first-year university students are given, together with their results of their performances in the year 12 semester Test and Final Assignment:

Expertes, how to do multiplication

how to do multiplication

Arithmetic mean, When three quantities are in A.P., then the middle...

When three quantities are in A.P., then the middle one is said to be the arithmetic  mean of the other two. That is, if a, b and c are in A.P., then b is th

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd