Calculate probabilities, payoff values, and information sets, Mathematics

Iran is trying to decide whether it should pursue its nuclear weapons program, and its decision will be affected in large measure by what it expects the United States to do. Your assignment is to use an extended-form game to analyze what Iran may choose to do. Your paper will be evaluated according to how correctly it uses the diagramming techniques we covered in class and how clearly the text of your paper explains the logic of the game. You should present the appropriate extended-form game, with the various moves clearly indicated, probabilities associated with various actions, outcomes and their values as well as appropriate information sets

This is the problem:

Imagine Iran initially believes it is playing against a Tough United States (TUS) with probability q, and against a Nice United States (NUS) with probability (1-q). Iran is contemplating making two moves: "C" would be to continue its nuclear weapons program, leading ultimately to the development of a nuclear-weapons capability; "S" would be to stop developing nuclear weapons immediately. Assume Iran chooses "C" initially.

In response to Iran's move of "C", the United States has two moves available: "D" would be to deploy the 7th Fleet on a long-term basis in the Strait of Hormuz and to engage in war games in the area; "ND" would be to not deploy the 7th fleet and to take no militarily hostile action. Iran believes that the probability that TUS would deploy the 7th Fleet is m, while the probability that NUS would deploy the fleet is m'. m > m'

Assume the United States deploys the 7th Fleet. Iran then has a final choice of "C" or "S", as described above. Should Iran choose "C", the United States has a choice to make: "A" would mean launching a military attack on Iran, halting the development of Iran's nuclear weapons for the time being; "NA" would mean to not attack Iran, allowing them to have nuclear weapons. TUS would choose "A" while NUS would choose "NA". Should Iran choose "S" at this stage, TUS would choose "CC" ("Continue Containment") while NUS would choose "R" ("Reward").

In this last stage there are four possible outcomes: Iran chooses C, the US chooses A; Iran chooses C, the US chooses NA; Iran chooses S the US chooses R; and Iran chooses S and the US chooses CC. The values Iran places on these outcomes are 0, 10, 7 and 2, respectively.

a) Draw the tree that captures the extended-form game described above. Make sure you clearly indicate the moves, probabilities, payoff values, and information sets.

Posted Date: 2/19/2013 2:10:52 AM | Location : United States







Related Discussions:- Calculate probabilities, payoff values, and information sets, Assignment Help, Ask Question on Calculate probabilities, payoff values, and information sets, Get Answer, Expert's Help, Calculate probabilities, payoff values, and information sets Discussions

Write discussion on Calculate probabilities, payoff values, and information sets
Your posts are moderated
Related Questions
what is 200-34-40

(1)Derive, algebraically, the 2nd order (Simpson's Rule) integration formula using 3 equally spaced sample points, f 0 ,f 1 ,f 2 with an increment of h. (2) Using software such

Finite Population Correction Factor Or Fpcf) If a specified population is relatively of small size and sample size is more than 5 percent of the population then the standard er

What percent of the figure below is shaded? Break the rectangle into eighths as shown below. The shaded part is 6/8 or 3/4 ; 3/4 is 75%.

Question Solve the following functions for x (where x is a real number). Leave your answers in exact form, that is, do not use a calculator, show all working. (a) 3 x 3 x2 3

test is tomorrow, don''t know anything lol, please help

a company of 10000 shares of rs 100 each declares a annual dividend of 5 %.what is the total amount dividend paid by the company

Tests for relative minimum For a relative minimum point there are two tests: i.The first derivative, which is (dy)/(dx)  = f´(x) = 0 ii.The second derivative, which i

Find reference angle alpha and thea element of [0 degrees, 1800 degrees]

Town x and town y were 270km apart. a car started from town x towards town y at a uniform speed of 60km/hr, while a motorcycle started from town y to town x at a uniform speed of 9