Example of exponential smoothing, Mathematics

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Example of Exponential Smoothing

By using the previous example and smoothing constant 0.3 generate monthly forecasts

Months	Sales	Forecasts: a = 0.3
January	1200
February	1280	1200
March	1310	1224
April	1270	1250
May	1190	1256
June	1290	1233
July	1410	1250
August	1360	1283
September	1430	1327
October	1280	1358
November	1410	1335
December	1390	1357

Solution

Since there were no forecasts before January we take Jan to be the forecast for February.

∴ Feb - 1200

For March;

March forecast = Feb forecast + 0.3 ( Feb sales - Feb forecast)

= 1200 + 0.3 (1280 - 1200) =1224

Note:

The value a lies between 1 and 0.
The higher a value, the extra forecast is sensitive to the current status.

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