Adf test, Macroeconomics

Assignment Help:

Table Summary of results from the ADF test

Test Number

Oil

GDP

Interest rate

Inflation

Unemployment

Exchange Rate

1

1.169921

-3.4819***

-2.35867**

-2.23904**

-0.98162

-1.05852

2

0.16054

-6.0342***

-1.7243***

-3.5581***

-2.15841

-2.40748

3

-3.72037*

-6.0839***

-2.795304

-3.62005**

-1.70094

-2.67032

***/**/* - Denotes that null hypothesis can be rejected at the 1%/5%/10% significance levels respectively.Figures condensed from Appendix tables 1A -> 1F.

From Table it can be seen that the variables; Oil, GDP, interest rate and inflation are all stationary and can reject the null hypothesis at the normal significance levels. The critical values for this test are those derived by James Mackinnon (1996). Therefore they do not contain unit roots. However for the remaining two variables -exchange rates and unemployment - the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at the normal significance levels.Therefore it is confirmed that these variables are not stationary and do contain a unit root. According to Kennedy (2001) this means that the regressions for these variables will be spurious meaning that these regressions are likely to show a very high  value, indicating a strong goodness of fit. Also it might show t-statistics which deem that the coefficients are significant. However, these results may not have any economic significance at all.


Related Discussions:- Adf test

Elasticity, Suppose price elasticity of demand for HP laptops is -2.3. If t...

Suppose price elasticity of demand for HP laptops is -2.3. If the price of an HP laptop is $1,000, what should the new price be to have an increase of 10% in quantity demanded for

Analysis of direct material, What is most likely to go wrong in the analysi...

What is most likely to go wrong in the analysis of direct material and other direct costs and what could be done about it.

Illusrtate the equilibrium point, QXd = 14 - (1/2)PX and QXs = (1/4)PX - 1 ...

QXd = 14 - (1/2)PX and QXs = (1/4)PX - 1 Instructions: Round your answers to the nearest whole number. a. Determine the equilibrium price and quantity. Show the equilibrium g

Determine the concept of money supply, Assume that the required reserve rat...

Assume that the required reserve ratio is 0.12 for deposits & there are no excess reserves. Assume that the total demand for currency is equal to 0.3 times deposits. a) If t

Determine a decrease in lump sum taxes, Using Simple Keynesian Model, discu...

Using Simple Keynesian Model, discuss the effect of the following: a) An increase in govt. expenditure. b) A decrease in lump sum taxes. In this context compare the govt.

How does outsourcing affect the economy, In principle, outsourcing makes th...

In principle, outsourcing makes things a little inexpensive and enhance profitability. Though, some things require to be done 'in house'. For example, some employers (largely) outs

Phillips curve in lowland, The Phillips curve in Lowland takes the form of ...

The Phillips curve in Lowland takes the form of ? = 0.04 - 0.5 (u - 0.05), where ? is the actual inflation rate and u is the unemployment rate. The Phillips curve in Highland takes

Negative performances of the economy, An advantage of observing statistics ...

An advantage of observing statistics from this range is that it encapsulates both positive and negative performances of the economy helping to produce a much more accurate insight

Interest rates and inflation, Q. Interest rates and inflation? Assume y...

Q. Interest rates and inflation? Assume you have 1 million on 1st January 2008. A basket of services and goods similar to the CPI basket costs 100,000. You can then purchase ex

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd