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A preliminary analysis of a project indicates the following:
NPV of Project
Scenario
Year
CF mil.
Unconditional
Probability
PVF
CF*Prob.*PVF
Initial
0
-50
100%
1
-50.000
H
25
70%
0.90909
15.909
L
10
30%
2.727
HH
2
85
49%
0.82645
34.421
HL
70
21%
12.149
LH
45
12%
4.463
LL
20
18%
2.975
NPV Af
22.645
A financial analyst uncovers additional information not incorporated in the calculations above:
In year 1, if scenario equals L, the firm can abandon operations and realize a liquidation value of $30 million from its assets.
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