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Sweetwater bakery has been using a forecast model

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Reference no: EM13967762

Sweetwater Bakery has been using a forecast model for two years to predict quarterly sales and now decide to test it using MAD and a tracking signal. Moreover, they want your help in developing a new forecasting model that takes into account the seasonality in sales and any detectable trend. You believe there is a seasonal factor associated with quarterly sales. Here is quarterly data from the past two years. 

Questions: 

 a) Find the tracking signal. Is the current forecasting routine acceptable? 

b) Prepare a forecast for the upcoming year using decomposition.

Please show calculations wherever required.

  1. Attach File

Period

Forecast

Actual Sales

Period 

Forecast

Actual Sales

Quarter 1

250

300

Quarter 5

400

416

Quarter 2

500

540

Quarter 6

800

760

Quarter 3

950

885

Quarter 7

1100

1191

Quarter 4

650

580

Quarter 8

800

760

Reference no: EM13967762

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