Find probability that candidate will be forecast as winner

Reference no: EM13118905

A political pollster is conducting an analysis of sample results in order to make predictions on election night. Assuming a two-candidate election, if a specific candidate receives at least 55% on the vote in the sample , that candidate will be forecast as the winner of the election. If you select a random sample of 100 voters, what is the probability that a candidate will be forecast as the winner when

a) The true percentage of her vote is 50.1%?
b) The true percentage of her vote is 60%?
c) The truce percentage of her vote is 49% (and she will actually lose the election)?
d) If the sample size is increased to 400, what are your answers tp (a) through (c)? Discuss.

Reference no: EM13118905

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