Explain why statement h must be less probable than f

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Question: Look again at Problems II and I. These problems involve assessments of the relative likelihood of different statements. When an individual ranks "Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement" as more probable than the statement "Linda is a bank teller," which of the three probability-assessment heuristics may be at work? Explain.

Problems I: The description and statements given in Problem II often elicit responses that are not consistent with probability requirements. If you are like most people, you ranked statement h (Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement) as more probable than statement f (Linda is a bank teller).

a. Explain why you ranked statements h and f as you did.

b. Statement h is actually a compound event. That is, for h to be true, Linda must be both a bank teller (Outcome A) and active in the feminist movement (Outcome B). Thus, statement h is represented by the Outcome "A" and "B." Use a Venn diagram to explain why statement h must be less probable than statement f.

c. Suppose that you have presented Problem 1 to a friend, who ranks statement h as more probable than statement f. Your friend argues as follows: "Well, it's not very likely that Linda is a bank teller in the first place. But if she is a bank teller, then she is very likely to be active in the feminist movement. So h would appear to be more likely than f." How is your friend interpreting statement h? Explain why this is not an appropriate interpretation.

Problem II: Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Use your judgment to rank the following statements by their probability, using 1 for the most probable statement and 8 for the least probable:

a. Linda is a teacher in an elementary school.

b. Linda works in a bookstore and takes Yoga classes.

c. Linda is active in the feminist movement.

d. Linda is a psychiatric social worker.

e. Linda is a member of the League of Women Voters.

f. Linda is a bank teller.

g. Linda is an insurance salesperson.

h. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.

Reference no: EM131524142

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