Reference no: EM133185490
Question - The figures below indicate the number of mergers that took place in the savings and loan industry over a 12-year period.
|
Year
|
Mergers
|
Year
|
Mergers
|
|
2010
|
46
|
2016
|
83
|
|
2011
|
46
|
2017
|
123
|
|
2012
|
62
|
2018
|
97
|
|
2013
|
45
|
2019
|
186
|
|
2014
|
64
|
2020
|
225
|
|
2015
|
61
|
2021
|
240
|
Use a 2-year moving average method to calculate forecasts for the years 2012-2022.
Use a 2-year weighted moving average method to calculate forecasts for the years 2012-2022, with the weight of 0.7 to be assigned to the most recent year data. Note: The SUMPRODUCT function must be used for computation.
Calculate the forecasts for the years 2010-2022 using the exponential smoothing method with alpha = 0.8.
Calculate the forecasts for the years 2010-2022 using the linear trendline method. Note: Renumber the number of periods to start with t = 1, and plot the data to get the estimations. Please round the estimates to two digits after the decimal point. The graph will also be part of your answer.
Calculate the MSE, MAD, MAPE, and bias for the forecasts you derived for the years 2010--2021 by using the exponential smoothing and linear trendline methods in questions 3 and 4. According to your results, which forecasting technique performed better?