Apply statistics to real world situations

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Reference no: EM132234312

Until Australia was "discovered," people of the Old World thought all swans were white because this was the only available empirical evidence. Other animals have different colors - why did the people in the 17th century believe swans did not?

The answer is that most of us base our understanding of the world on what we have observed and most have a difficult time making room in our paradigm for unexpected things.

In his book, The Black Swan: the impact of the highly improbable, Nassim Taleb defines a Black Swan event as being an outlier, having an extreme impact, and subject to after-the-fact rationalization and predictability. Taleb argues that Black Swan events, things with low predictability and large impact, are responsible for most of the really important changes in our world. In just our recent past, we have seen the rapid collapse of the Soviet Union, the spread of the Internet, 9-11, and the sudden rise of Islamic fundamentalism. Taleb believes we are blind to randomness and the concomitant outliers.

For this discussion, answer the following.

Describe a significant event, technological change, or invention that has taken place since you were born that fits the characteristics of Black Swans. Find at least one outside source that supports your conclusion.

How can you make use of the concept of Black Swans to improve your chances for success? For example, the French built the expensive, "impenetrable" Maginot Line to block the route Germany used to invade during WWI, but the new Germany just took a different route. What does this imply?

Reference no: EM132234312

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