Develop wind energy offshore, Strategic Management

We know from a great deal of research that when asked to assign probabilities to uncertain states of nature most people give answers that are over-confident when calibrated against reality and that are also subject to many other systematic and common biases.  You are managing a large and risky project to develop wind energy offshore in the Nantucket Sound of Massachusetts.  This is a controversial project that is opposed by significant political interests (e.g., the Kennedy family of Hyannisport).  You have assembled a group of political and legal experts to advise you on the probability that this opposition could cause more than a year of delay to your development schedule by virtue of litigation and protest.  What steps would you take in designing an interview protocol for these experts that would help ensure that the probabilities they assign to this event are well-calibrated in reality (i.e.,  as free from bias as possible).

Posted Date: 2/22/2013 1:16:01 AM | Location : United States







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