Compute the probability, Mathematics

From past experience a machine is termed to be set up correctly on 90 percent of occasions.  If the machine is set up correctly then 95 percent of good parts are expected however if the machine is not set up correctly then the probability of a good part is only 30 percent.

On a specific day the machine is set up and the first component produced and found to be good.  What is the probability that the machine is set up appropriately.


This is shown in the form of a probability tree or diagram as given below:

2000_Compute the Probability.png

 Whereas: CS - Correct Setting

IS - Incorrect Setting

GP - Good Product

BP - Bad Product

P(CSGP) = 0.9 × 0.95 = 0.855

P(CSBP) = 0.9 × 0.05 = 0.045

P(ISGP) = 0.1 × 0.3 =   0.03

P(ISBP) = 0.1 × 0.7 =    0.07


- Probability of obtaining a good part (GP) = CSGP or ISGP

                                                            = CSGP + ISGP

                                                            = 0.855 + 0.03 = 0.885

Note: Good parts may be produced while the machine is correctly set up and when also it's incorrectly setup. In 1000 trials, 855 occasions while its correctly setup and good parts produced as CSGP and 30 occasions while its incorrectly setup and good parts produced as ISGP.

- Probability that the machine is correctly set up after getting a good part.

= number of favoural outcomes/total possible outcomes


= 0.855/ 0.885

= 0.966


= P (CS|GP)

= P (CSGP)/P(GP)

= 0.855/ 0.885

= 0.966

Posted Date: 2/20/2013 4:25:02 AM | Location : United States

Related Discussions:- Compute the probability, Assignment Help, Ask Question on Compute the probability, Get Answer, Expert's Help, Compute the probability Discussions

Write discussion on Compute the probability
Your posts are moderated
Related Questions
how to know if it is function and if is relation

(-85) from (-21) and explain me

If a pair of dice is thrown and X denotes the sum of the numbers on them. Find the probability distribution of X.Also find the expectation of X.     SOLUTION:    In a singl

tom has 150 feet of fencing to enclose a rectangular garden. if the length is to be 5 feet less than three the width, find the area of the garden

Mike, Dan, Ed, and Sy played together on a baseball team. Mike's batting average was 0.349, Dan's was 0.2, Ed's was 0.35, and Sy's was 0.299. Who had the highest batting average?

Tangents with Polar Coordinates Here we now require to discuss some calculus topics in terms of polar coordinates. We will begin with finding tangent lines to polar curves.

Solve sin (3t ) = 2 . Solution This example is designed to remind you of certain properties about sine and cosine.  Recall that -1 ≤ sin (θ ) ≤ 1 and -1 ≤ cos(θ ) ≤ 1 .  Th

a lending library has a fixed charge for the first three days and an additional charge for each day thereafter. sam paid Rs 27 for a bookkept for 7 days while jaan paid Rs 21 for t

Find the largest possible positive integer that will divide 398, 436, and 542 leaving remainder 7, 11, 15 respectively. (Ans: 17) Ans: The required number is the HCF of the n

Let {An} be sequence of real numbers. Define a set S by: S={i ? N : for all j > i, ai