Describing non-numerical factors cause fluctuations

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A. This table shows the number of traffic violations issued in the city of Clifton, Virginia over the last seven years:

Year Nr
2007 1567
2008 1691
2009 1579
2010 1490
2011 1373
2012 1241
2013 ?

On the basis of this data, project how many traffic violations will be issued in 2013 using":

1) A three-year moving average

2) A five-year moving average

3) A four-year moving average where the most recent year is weighted twice as heavily as each of the preceding years

B. Suppose that you have a time series showing iPhone4 sales for the last 15 months. Your boss would like for you to use this data to forecast the demand for next month based upon this data using moving averages and weighted moving averages.

a) How would you suggest to him what the value for "n" should be in a simple moving average?

b) How would you suggest to him what weights should be used in a weighted moving average?

c) Identify and briefly describe some of the "non-numerical" factors that cause fluctuations in demand for the iPhone 4.

Reference no: EM1335635

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