Monte carlo simulation model, Financial Management

Assignment Help:

Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Monte Carlo simulation is used to analyse to what extent the valuation of the chosen company is dependent on the assumptions. Monte Carlo simulation is based on artificially creating a chance process, running it many times and observing the result (Barreto & Howland, 2005). A deterministic model is created on the excel sheet for the calculation of valuation of the share of the company. A set of inputs are identified that are assumed to arrive at the valuation of the company. These inputs are varied and result of the model is evaluated. This way the model is run many times. Results are analysed using statistical methods like histograms, probability distribution, and summary statistics. Monte Carlo simulation takes into account already defined variables with their all possible values and iterate these values thousands of time to analyse all the possible results expected with the change in inputs.

359_Monte Carlo Simulation.png

Figure: Monte Carlo Simulation model

So in Monte Carlo simulation instead of fixed inputs a probability distribution is applied to some or all of the inputs which generates a probability distribution of the Output.

Analysis of the result of the Monte Carlo simulation is done to analyse how the valuation of the companies changes with the change in inputs. But this simulation requires that inputs like beta, growth rates are defined by a distribution. Distribution could be normal, triangular, binomial, lognormal, studentt, exponential etc. Triangular distribution is typically used where data is predicted subjectively and it is not possible to collect sufficient data for the population sample. This is based on a minimum, maximum and a subjective guess what is the most likely value the data can take.


Related Discussions:- Monte carlo simulation model

Share-based payments and retirement benefits, Applicant should have been we...

Applicant should have been well versed in the calculation of actuarial losses and gains on pensions. It would have been significant to ensure each item affecting liabilities and as

What are implications of ownership rights by equity claims, What are the ma...

What are the main implications of ownership rights by equity claims? Ownership rights have two primary implications: a. First, equity holders can advantage by any raise in t

Calculate the cumulative probability , Compound options are usually cheaper...

Compound options are usually cheaper than vanilla options and we know that there are four main types of compound options: a call on a call; a put on a call; a call on a put; a put

Contribution plans-pension fund plans, Defined Contribution Plans In de...

Defined Contribution Plans In defined contribution plans, the contributions made by or on behalf of the employee are accumulated and paid on retirement along with such return a

Assignment, what are the features of branch accounting

what are the features of branch accounting

Explain the four fundamental rights of ownership, Explain the four fundamen...

Explain the four fundamental rights of ownership A shareholder, by virtue of being an owner, is generally entitled to four fundamental rights of ownership: 1. Claim on a sha

Which is lower for company cost of debt or cost of quality, Which is lower ...

Which is lower for a given company:  the cost of debt or the cost of equity?  Explain.  Ignore taxes in your answer. The cost of debt is all the time less than the cost of equi

Define price ceiling make consumers better off, How can a price ceiling mak...

How can a price ceiling make consumers better off?  Under what conditions might it make them worse off? If the supply curve is completely inelastic a price ceiling will raise c

Describe a.i.g''s business model and structure, A.I.G. is often called the ...

A.I.G. is often called the largest insurance entity in the world. A.I.G.'s total assets were $860 billion on 12/31/2008 (dwarfing any other insurance entity) with 116,000 employees

Cost of capital, the nu-nu brothers inc. (NNBI) has the following capital s...

the nu-nu brothers inc. (NNBI) has the following capital structure,

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd