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As of November 1, 1999, the exchange rate in between the Brazilian real and U.S. dollar is R$1.95/$. The agreement forecast for the U.S. and Brazil inflation rates for the next 1-year period is 2.6% and 20.0%, correspondingly. How would you forecast the exchange rate to be at just about November 1, 2000?
Solution: As the inflation rate is quite high in Brazil, we may make use of the purchasing power parity to forecast the exchange rate.
E(e) = E(p$) - E(pR$)
= 2.6% - 20.0%
= -17.4%
E(ST) = So(1 + E(e))
= (R$1.95/$) (1 + 0.174)
= R$2.29/$
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