Compute the joining, marginal and posterior probability, Operation Research

Assignment Help:

The Best Corporation is considering making either minor or major repairs to a malfunctioning production process.  When the process is malfunctioning, the percentage of defective items produced seems to be a constant with either   p = 0.10 or p = 0.25.  Defective items are produced randomly, and there is no way Best can tell for sure whether the machine needs minor or major repairs.  If minor repairs are made when p = 0.25, the probability of a defective item is reduced to 0.05.  If minor repairs are made when p = 0.10 or major repairs are made when p = 0.10 or p = 0.25, the proportion of defectives is reduced to zero. The company's prior probability that p = 0.10 is 0.70.  Best has recently received an order for 1000 items.  This item yields Best a profit of $0.50 per unit, except when the company has to pay a $2 penalty cost for each defective item.  Major repairs to the process cost $100 and minor repairs to the process cost $60.  The process cannot be adjusted once a production run has begun. Prior to starting a production run, however, Best can sample (at a cost of $1 per item) items from a trial rum.

Questions

i)      Find Best's optimal course of action if the company is trying to decide between not sampling at all and sampling one item. (Draw, properly label and evaluate the decision tree).

ii)     Find the optimal action for Best if it is willing to consider a sample of either one or two item, (Draw, properly label and evaluate the decision tree).

iii)    Compute the joining probabilities, marginal probabilities and posterior probabilities for (i) and (ii) using MS Excel.

iv)    Use Decision Tree Analysis and find the best strategy.


Related Discussions:- Compute the joining, marginal and posterior probability

Formulate this as a Linear Programming Problem., A paper mill produces two ...

A paper mill produces two grades of paper viz., X and Y. Because of raw material restrictions, it cannot produce more than 400 tons of grade X paper and 300 tons of grade Y paper i

Organization of the study, In this project the main focus is conducted inte...

In this project the main focus is conducted interview to educational experts. This interview is base on Delphi technique. This technique is used to attain experts' consensus on ele

Disadvantage of standard deviation - measure of dispersion, Disadvantage ...

Disadvantage  of standard Deviation It is not  easy  to understand  and calculate. It gives  more  weight  to the extremes  and less  to the items   nearer to mean. Since

Techniques of work measurement, Techniques  of Work  Measurement A n...

Techniques  of Work  Measurement A number of work  measurement  techniques  have been  developed  to suit  different  types of work . There are: 1. Repetitive work: The

Calculation of standard deviation - discrete series, Calculation  of Stand...

Calculation  of Standard Deviation - Discrete Series   There are three methods for  calculating  standard  deviation  in discrete series": a. Actual Mean Methods: It inc

Model, Importance of models

Importance of models

Construction of a mathematical model, The 2 nd phase of operations Resear...

The 2 nd phase of operations Research is to construct a mathematical model representing the system under study. It requires the identification of both static and dynam

Markert reseach, The Upjohn Company, based in Kalamazoo, Michigan, manufact...

The Upjohn Company, based in Kalamazoo, Michigan, manufactures and markets pharmaceuticals and health-related products. With more than 19,000 employees and distribution in over 30

#titleAssignment Problem.., Six Operators are to be assigned to five jobs w...

Six Operators are to be assigned to five jobs with the cost of assignment in Rs. given in the matrix below. Determine the optimal assignment. Which operator will have no assignment

Linear programing problems, basic requirements for solving linear programin...

basic requirements for solving linear programing using simplex method

Write Your Message!

Captcha
Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd