What should management do to achieve highest expected payoff

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Reference no: EM132186361

A manager is trying to decide whether to build a small, medium or large facility. Demand can be low, average or high, with the estimated probabilities being 0.25, 0.40 and 0.35, respectively.

A small facility is expected to earn an after-tax net present value of just $18,000 if demand is low. If demand is average, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000; it can be increased to medium size to earn a net present value of $60,000. If demand is high, the small facility is expected to earn $75,000 and can be expanded to medium $60,000 or large to earn $125,000.

A medium-sized facility is expected to lose an estimated $25,000 if demand is low and earn $140,000 if demand is average. If demand is high, the medium-sized facility is expected to earn a net present value of $150,000; it can be expanded to a large size for a net payoff of $145,000.

If a large facility is build and demand is high, earnings are expected to be $220,000. If demand is average for the large facility, the present value is expected to be $125,000; if demand is low, the facility is expected to lose $60,000.

Draw a decision tree for this problem.

What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff?

Reference no: EM132186361

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