Reference no: EM13278988

Texas Wildcatters Inc. (TWI) is in the business of finding and developing oil properties, then selling the successful ones to major oil companies. It is now considering a new potential field, and its geologists have developed the following data, shown in thousands of dollars. t = 0. A $400 feasibility study would be conducted at t = 0. The results of this study would determine if the company should commence drilling operations or make no further investment and abandon the project. There is an 80% probability that the feasibility study would indicate that an exploratory well should be drilled. There is a 20% probability that no further work would be done. t = 1. If the feasibility study indicates good potential, the firm would spend $1,000 at t = 1 to drill an exploratory well. The best estimate is that there is a 60% probability that the exploratory well would indicate good potential and thus that further work would be done, and a 40% probability that the outlook would look bad and the project would be abandoned. t = 2. If the exploratory well tests positive, the firm would go ahead and spend $10,000 to obtain an accurate estimate of the amount of oil in the field at t = 2. t = 3. If the full drilling program is carried out, there is a 50% probability of finding a lot of oil and receiving a $25,000 cash inflow at t = 3, and a 50% probability of finding less oil and then only receiving a $10,000 inflow. Since the project is considered to be quite risky, a 19.5% cost of capital is used. What is the project's expected NPV, in thousands of dollars? 1. $373.65 2. $398.23 3. $481.81 4. $570.31 5. $491.64