### What is a three-period moving average forecast

Assignment Help Applied Statistics
##### Reference no: EM134401

Question 1

A ________ is a gradual, long-term, up-or-down movement of demand.

seasonal pattern
cycle
trend
prediction

Question 2

A ________ is an up-and-down repetitive movement that repeats itself over a time span of more than 1 year.

prediction
seasonal pattern
trend
cyclical pattern

Question 3

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.

What is a three-period moving average forecast for the month of July?

47.33
46.10
45.38
44.29

Question 4

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.

What is the three-period weighted moving average for July using the weights 0.5 (most recent), 0.3, and 0.2?

48.99
45.6
49.51
46.09

Question 5

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.

Using 1 to represent January, 2 to represent February, and so on, what is the intercept for the regression equation that predicts the pounds of supplies available?

0.55
-2.74
59.55
8.87

Question 6

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.

What is the forecast for July if exponential smoothing with an alpha=.04 generated a forecast of 43.0 for June?

41.25
40.64
43.16
42.88

Question 7

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.

What is the slope of the regression equation developed when the Sales data are used to predict the Pounds?
0.92
0.86
0.80
0.71

Question 8

Consider the following demand and forecast.

If MAD = 2 for the four periods under consideration, what is the forecast for period 4?

19
20
21
22

Question 9

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

trend only
trend plus seasonal
trend plus random
None of these

Question 10

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

trend only
trend plus seasonal
trend plus random
seasonal only

Question 11

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

trend only
trend plus seasonal
trend plus irregular
seasonal

Question 12

Given forecast errors of 6, 4, 0 and -2, what is the mean absolute deviation?

2
3
4
2.67
None of these

Question 13

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Use a 3-period moving average to forecast demand for period 7.

283.33
280
290
310

Question 14

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing to compute a forecast for period 7 if = .40.

273
277
267.8
286.2

Question 15

In adjusted exponential smoothing, the closer beta is to ________, the stronger a trend is reflected.

-1 or 1
-1
0
1

Question 16

In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to ________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

-1
0
1
-1 or 1

Question 17

1.
The following data represents quarterly sales of lawnmowers.

What is the seasonal factor for the third quarter? (Round to the nearest hundredth.)

.20
.22
.26
.30

Question 18

The manager of "Skis 4 U" is preparing a forecast for January of 2013. Demand exhibits both trend and seasonality. The trend equation for monthly demand is?y?= 4375 + 80t, where?t?= 1 for January 2012. The seasonal index for January is 1.25. The forecast for January 2013 is:

4575
4583
5668
6769

Question 19

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

.01
.50
.90
3.14

Question 20

________ are good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns.

Longer-period moving averages
Shorter-period moving averages
Moving averages
Weighted moving averages

Question 21

________ has become increasingly crucial to compete in the modern international business environment.

The Delphi method
Technological forecasting
Prediction
Exponential smoothing

Question 22

________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

Qualitative methods
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods

Question 23

________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

Linear trend
Linear regression
Forecast demand
Linear equation

Question 24

________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

Cumulative error
MAPD
Average error

Question 25

________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

Forecast mistake
Forecast error
Forecast accuracy

Question 26

________ is the percentage of the variation in the dependent variable that results from the independent variable.

Regression
Coefficient of determination
Correlation
Linear regression

Question 27

________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Regression
Qualitative
Time series
Queuing

Question 28

________ methods assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future.

Time series
Regression
Quantitative
Qualitative

Question 29

________ moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do ________ moving averages.

Longer-period, shorter-period
Shorter-period, longer-period
Longer-period, longer-period
Shorter-period, shorter-period

Question 30

________ use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts.

Qualitative methods
Regression
Time series
Quantitative methods

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