**Question 1 **

A ________ is a gradual, long-term, up-or-down movement of demand.

Answer

seasonal pattern

cycle

trend

prediction

**Question 2 **

A ________ is an up-and-down repetitive movement that repeats itself over a time span of more than 1 year.

Answer

prediction

seasonal pattern

trend

cyclical pattern

**Question 3 **

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.

What is a three-period moving average forecast for the month of July?

Answer

47.33

46.10

45.38

44.29**Question 4 **

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.

What is the three-period weighted moving average for July using the weights 0.5 (most recent), 0.3, and 0.2?

Answer

48.99

45.6

49.51

46.09

**Question 5 **

A rendering plant wishes to use the data (sales records from a few local businesses and the month of the year) to help determine their supply level for the coming months. The records shown in the table provide an excellent opportunity for you to assist them with their forecasting.

Using 1 to represent January, 2 to represent February, and so on, what is the intercept for the regression equation that predicts the pounds of supplies available?

Answer

0.55

-2.74

59.55

8.87

**Question 6 **

What is the forecast for July if exponential smoothing with an alpha=.04 generated a forecast of 43.0 for June?

Answer

41.25

40.64

43.16

42.88

**Question 7 **

What is the slope of the regression equation developed when the Sales data are used to predict the Pounds?

Answer

0.92

0.86

0.80

0.71**Question 8 **

Consider the following demand and forecast.

If MAD = 2 for the four periods under consideration, what is the forecast for period 4?

Answer

19

20

21

22 **Question 9 **

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

**Answer **

trend only

trend plus seasonal

trend plus random

None of these **Question 10 **

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Answer

trend only

trend plus seasonal

trend plus random

seasonal only **Question 11 **

Consider the following graph of sales.

Which of the following characteristics is exhibited by the data?

Answer

trend only

trend plus seasonal

trend plus irregular

seasonal **Question 12 **

Given forecast errors of 6, 4, 0 and -2, what is the mean absolute deviation?

Answer

2

3

4

2.67

None of these**Question 13 **

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

Use a 3-period moving average to forecast demand for period 7.

Answer

283.33

280

290

310**Question 14 **

Given the following data on the number of pints of ice cream sold at a local ice cream store for a 6-period time frame:

If the forecast for period 5 is equal to 275, use exponential smoothing to compute a forecast for period 7 if = .40.

Answer

273

277

267.8

286.2**Question 15 **

In adjusted exponential smoothing, the closer beta is to ________, the stronger a trend is reflected.

Answer

-1 or 1

-1

0

1 **Question 16 **

In exponential smoothing, the closer alpha is to ________, the greater the reaction to the most recent demand.

Answer

-1

0

1

-1 or 1 **Question 17 **

1.

The following data represents quarterly sales of lawnmowers.

What is the seasonal factor for the third quarter? (Round to the nearest hundredth.)

Answer

.20

.22

.26

.30**Question 18 **

The manager of "Skis 4 U" is preparing a forecast for January of 2013. Demand exhibits both trend and seasonality. The trend equation for monthly demand is?y?= 4375 + 80t, where?t?= 1 for January 2012. The seasonal index for January is 1.25. The forecast for January 2013 is:**Answer **

4575

4583

5668

6769**Question 19 **

Which of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most slowly to sudden changes in forecast errors?

Answer

.01

.50

.90

3.14**Question 20 **

________ are good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns.

Answer

Longer-period moving averages

Shorter-period moving averages

Moving averages

Weighted moving averages **Question 21 **

________ has become increasingly crucial to compete in the modern international business environment.

Answer

The Delphi method

Technological forecasting

Prediction

Exponential smoothing**Question 22 **

________ is a category of statistical techniques that uses historical data to predict future behavior.

Answer

Qualitative methods

Regression

Time series

Quantitative methods **Question 23 **

________ is a linear regression model relating demand to time.

Answer

Linear trend

Linear regression

Forecast demand

Linear equation **Question 24 **

________ is absolute error as a percentage of demand.

Answer

Cumulative error

MAD

MAPD

Average error **Question 25 **

________ is the difference between the forecast and actual demand.

Answer

Forecast mistake

Forecast error

MAD

Forecast accuracy **Question 26 **

________ is the percentage of the variation in the dependent variable that results from the independent variable.

**Answer **

Regression

Coefficient of determination

Correlation

Linear regression

**Question 27 **

________ methods are the most common type of forecasting method for the long-term strategic planning process.

Answer

Regression

Qualitative

Time series

Queuing**Question 28 **

________ methods assume that what has occurred in the past will continue to occur in the future.

Answer

Time series

Regression

Quantitative

Qualitative **Question 29 **

________ moving averages react more slowly to recent demand changes than do ________ moving averages.

Answer

Longer-period, shorter-period

Shorter-period, longer-period

Longer-period, longer-period

Shorter-period, shorter-period **Question 30 **

________ use management judgment, expertise, and opinion to make forecasts.

Answer

Qualitative methods

Regression

Time series

Quantitative methods

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