What are unstructured clinical judgment-actuarial prediction

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Assignment:

Carl Dean was a good student and stayed out of trouble until high school. Although his parents divorced when he was 10, he proceeded to live with his grandparents in a stable environment. However, around the age of 15, he began experimenting with drugs and skipping school. He stayed out of fights with his peers, however, would occasionally capture neighborhood cats and torture them. He dropped out of school and worked as a busboy at a local diner, a job he maintained for nearly a decade.

At the age of 26, Carl lured a young woman into his car by telling her that his infant son was ill and he needed someone to watch him while he ran into the store for medication. Once inside the car, Carl hit the woman over the head rendering her unconscious. He then proceeded to a nearby wooded area and tied her to a tree. When she came to, he hit her again, this time causing such a severe head blow that she died. Carl had been using crack cocaine at the time of the crime. He had no prior criminal convictions and agreed to a plea bargain for 2nd degree murder with a sentence of 15-18 years in prison.

Carl, now 41 years old has been a "model inmate" and is scheduled to be released in 90 days. He received drug/alcohol treatment in prison, finished his GED, and worked as a chaplain's assistant. He exhibited no mental health difficulties or violence while incarcerated. He maintained correspondence with his brother and grandparents, who are very supportive of him. It is to his grandparents' farm that he plans to move after release.

Pretend you are a prison psychologist who has been asked to assess Carl's case and give a recommendation regarding his future risk level. Answer each of the following questions in full:

1) What are the differences between the following risk assessment methods: (a) unstructured clinical judgment, (b) actuarial prediction, and (c) structured professional judgment? Which approach for predicting future risk would you use and why?

2) After analyzing Carl's history, list at least 3 "markers" in his case that would inform your prediction about future behavior and indicate the type of marker each one is (historical, dynamic, or risk management).

3) The prison review board is requesting your evaluation of whether Carl is at a) HIGH, b) AVERAGE, or c) LOW risk for future violent behavior? Explain your decision using factors described in your textbook as support.

4) Last, what is your opinion of the use of current risk assessment techniques?

Reference no: EM133976960

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