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Forecasting:
For Problems 1-3 consider the following data:
Period
Demand
10
248
11
430
12
324
13
263
14
555
1) Develop a 3 period moving average forecast for periods 13-15
2) Develop two period weighted moving average model for periods 12-15. Use weights of 0.7 and 0.3, with the most recent observation weighted the highest
3) Develop an exponential smoothing forecast (SD=0.25) for Periods 11-15. Assume the forecast for period 10 was 294
4) Consider the forecasts shown below. Calculate MAD and MFE using the data for months January through June. Does the model over or under forecast? Comment on the importance of this.
Month
Actual Demand
Forecast
Forecast Error
Absolute Forecast Error
Jan
1040
1055
-15
15
Feb
990
1052
-62
62
Mar
980
900
80
Apr
1060
1025
35
May
1080
1100
-20
20
Jun
1000
1050
-50
50
Totals
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