Using seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand

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Reference no: EM131225633

The manager of a travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows: Period Demand Predicted 1 132 120 2 194 200 3 151 150 4 91 102 5 91 80 6 132 135 7 126 128 8 130 124 9 95 104 10 149 150 11 105 94 12 85 82 13 137 140 14 134 128 a. Compute MAD for the fifth period, then update it period by period using exponential smoothing with α = .1. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.) t Period A Demand MADt 1 132 2 194 3 151 4 91 5 91 6 132 7 126 8 130 9 95 10 149 11 105 12 85 13 137 14 134 b. Compute a tracking signal for periods 5 through 14 using the initial and updated MADs. (Negative values should be indicated by a minus sign. Round your intermediate calculations and final answers to 3 decimal places.) t Period A Demand Tracking Signal 1 132 2 194 3 151 4 91 5 91 6 132 7 126 8 130 9 95 10 149 11 105 12 85 13 137 14 134

Reference no: EM131225633

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