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Find the seasonal index, trend line and forecast it.
Quarterly billing for water usage is shown below.
Year
Quarter
1
2
3
4
Winter
64
66
68
73
Spring
103
104
120
Summer
152
160
162
176
Fall
72
78
88
a. Find the seasonal index for each quarter.
b. Depersonalize the data.
c. Find the trend line.
d. Assume there is no cyclical component (don't forget: there IS a seasonal component). Forecast the summer billing for year 5.
Calculate a 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9 also Compare the two forecasts by utilizing MAD. Which forecast appears to be more accurate.
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