Smoothness of the ?tted curve

Reference no: EM13995484

1. The following data show U.S. retail sales of canoes from 1991 through 2008, with data in thousands of boats. Source: National Marine Manufacturers Association, 2008 Recreational Boating Statistical Abstract, p. 72.

Sales Sales

Year (thousands) Year (thousands)

1991	72.3	2000	111.8
1992	78.0	2001	105.8
1993	89.7	2002	100.0
1994	99.8	2003	86.7
1995	97.8	2004	93.9
1996	92.9	2005	77.2
1997	103.6	2006	99.9
1998	107.8	2007	99.6
1999	121.0	2008	73.7

a. Construct a graph of the time series. Does the overall trend appear to be upward or downward?

b. Construct a three-year centered moving average for this series.

c. Using the constant a 5 0.3, ?t an exponentially smoothed curve to the original time series.

d. Repeat part (c) using a 5 0.7. How has the new value for the constant affected the smoothness of the ?tted curve?

Reference no: EM13995484

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