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(a) Plot the data on U.S. general aviation shipments.
(b) Describe the pattern and discuss possible causes.
(c) Would a fitted trend be helpful? Explain.
(d) Make a similar graph for 1992-2003 only. Would a fitted trend be helpful in making a prediction for 2004?
(e) Fit a trend model of your choice to the 1992-2003 data.
(f) Make a forecast for 2004, using either the fitted trend model or a judgment forecast. Why is it best to ignore earlier years in this data set?
U.S Manufactured general aviation shipments( 1966 - 2003)
Year
planes
year
1966
15,587
1976
15,451
1986
1,495
1996
1,053
1967
13,484
1977
16,904
1987
1,085
1997
1,482
1968
13,556
1978
17,811
1988
1,143
1998
2,115
1969
12,407
1979
17,048
1989
1,535
1999
2,421
1970
7,277
1980
11,877
1990
1,134
2000
2,714
1971
7,346
1981
9,457
1991
1,021
2001
2,538
1972
9,774
1982
4,266
1992
856
2002
2,169
1973
13,646
1983
2,691
1993
870
2003
2,090
1974
14,166
1984
2,431
1994
881
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