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Data collected on the gasoline sales over the past 12 weeks are shown in the following table.
Week
Sales (1000s of gallons)
1
17
2
21
3
19
4
23
5
18
6
16
7
20
8
9
22
10
11
15
12
a) Using a weight of 1/2 for the most recent observation, 1/3 for the second most recent,and 1⁄6 for third most recent, compute a three-week weighted moving average for the time series. Compute the MAD, MSE and MPE for this method.
b) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.1 to forecast the gasoline sales . Assume that last period's forecast for year 1 is 15,000 gallons to begin the procedure. Which method do you think is best?. Is this an improvement over the weighted average- use all measures above i.e MAD,MSE, MAPE
c) Use regression analysis to estimate the line of best fit -use the manual method with the formulas shown below.
y=a+bx
where:
b= n∑xy-∑x∑y
n∑x2 -(∑X)2
a=y-bx
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