Probability the newspaper sample

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1. Back to school, again. Based on the 74% national retention rate described in Exercise 31, does a college where 522 of the 603 freshman returned the next year as sopho- mores have a right to brag that it has an unusually high retention rate? Explain.

2. Binge sample. After hearing of the national result that 44% of students engage in binge drinking (5 drinks at a sitting for men, 4 for women), a professor surveyed a random sample of 244 students at his college and found that 96 of them admitted to binge drinking in the past week. Should he be surprised at this result? Explain.

3. Polling. Just before a referendum on a school budget, a local newspaper polls 400 voters in an attempt to predict whether the budget will pass. Suppose that the budget actually has the support of 52% of the voters. What's the probability the newspaper's sample will lead them to predict defeat? Be sure to verify that the assumptions and conditions necessary for your analysis are met.

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