Prepare a time-series plot of data

Assignment Help Business Management

Reference no: EM13740739

1. CoastCo Insurance, Inc., is interested in forecasting annual larceny thefts in the United States using the following data:

Year	Larceny Thefts*	Year	Laetetty Thefts* 6,592 6,926
t972 1973		1984 P965	Laetetty Thefts* 6,592 6,926
1974	5,263	1986	7,257
1975	5.9713	1987	7,SM
1976	6.271	1988	7,706
1977	5,906	1989	7,1372
1978	5,083	1998	7,946
1979	6,578	1991	8,142
1980	7,137	1992	7,915
1981	7,194	1993	7,021
1982	7.143	1994	7,876
1983	6,713

a. Prepare a time-series plot of these data. On the basis of this graph, do you think there is a trend in the data? Explain.

b. Look at the autocorrelation structure of larceny thefts for lags of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. Do the autocorrelation coef?cients fall quickly toward zero? Demonstrate that the critical value for rk is 0.417. Explain what these results tell you about a trend in the data.

c. On the basis of what is found in parts a and b, suggest a forecasting method from Table 2.1 that you think might be appropriate for this series.

2. Use exploratory data analysis to determine whether there is a trend and/or seasonality in mobile home shipments (MHS). The data by quarter are shown in the following table:

Year		Quarter
Year	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
1981	'54.9	70.1	65 8	50 2
1982	53.3	67 9	63 1	55 3
1983	613	811	817	691
1984	67.8	82.7	79 0	661
1985	62 3	79.3	76 5	65 S
1985		79.3	76 5	65 S
1986	58.1	66 8	63 4	56 I
1987	51.9	628	647	53S
1988	187.0	605	99 2	51 6
1989	48.1	5S 1	59 3	44 5
1990	43 3	51 7	50 5	42 6
1991	354	474	472	409
1992	430	52.8	570	576
1993	56 4	64 3	62 1	66 4
1994	691	78.7	78.7	775
1995	79 2	86 8	87.6	664

On the basis of your analysis, do you think there is a signi?cant trend in MHS? Is there seasonality? What forecasting methods might be appropriate for MHS according to the guidelines in Table 2.1?

3. Home sales are often considered an important determinant of the future health of the economy. Thus, there is widespread interest in being able to forecast total houses sold (THS). Quarterly data for THS are shown in the following table in thousands of units:

a. Prepare a time-series plot of THS. Describe what you see in this plot in terms of trend and seasonality.

b. Calculate and plot the ?rst twelve autocorrelation coef?cients for PHS. What does this autocorrelation structure suggest about the trend?

c. De-trend the data by calculating ?rst differences: DTHSt THSt THSt1. Calculate and plot the ?rst eight autocorrelation coef?cients for DTHS. Is there a trend in DTHS?

4. Question 1 includes data on the Japanese exchange rate (EXRJ) by month. On the basis of a time-series plot of these data and the autocorrelation structure of EXRJ, would you say the data are stationary? Explain your answer.

Reference no: EM13740739

Questions Cloud

Price to maximize total revenue : If the price elasticity of a good is less than 0 but greater than -1, the good is considered _____________ and the company should ____________ price to maximize total revenue.

Discuss the six key functions of a business''s operations : Research, identify, and discuss the six key functions of a business's operations.

How markets allocate resources : How markets allocate resources. Derived demand is the change in demand due to a result initiated in another market. Market changes affect the demand for resources in related markets. For the following scenario, you are given a list of products. Draw ..

If the cross-price elasticity between two goods : If the cross-price elasticity between two goods is 1.5, the goods are ____________.

Prepare a time-series plot of data : CoastCo Insurance, Inc., is interested in forecasting annual larceny thefts in the United States using the following data: Prepare a time-series plot of these data. On the basis of this graph, do you think there is a trend in the data? Explain

Use a uniform gradient amount in your solution : For a repayment schedule that starts at EOY three at $Z and proceeds for years 3 through 8 at $2Z, $3Z,..., what is the value of Z if the principal of this loan is $10,200 and the interest rate is 9% per year? Use a uniform gradient amount (G) in you..

Differences between face-to-face and virtual presentations : Understanding the differences between virtual and face-to-face presentations is certainly becoming more important as business needs grow. Assess and explain the principal differences between face-to-face and virtual presentations.

What is the present equivalent of rental income : Suppose that annual income from a rental property is expected to start at $1,350 per year and decrease at a uniform amount of $55 each year after the first year for the 12-year expected life of the property. The investment cost is $8,200, and i is 9%..

Informal and modern urban wage-traditional rural income : Consider the following distribution of income in a 12 person economy, with the modern urban wage=3, the traditional rural income=1 and the informal urban wage = 2: (1,2,3,1,2,3,1,2,31,2,1). the poverty line is at 1.3. What is the level of absolute po..

User Account

All Pages