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Using the monthly data in VOLAT.RAW, the following model was estimated: pcip^ =1.54 +.344 pcip-1 + .074 pcip-2 + .073 pcip-3 + .031 pcsp-1 (.56) (.042) (.045) (.042) (.013)
n = 554, R2 = .174, R2 =.168, where pcip is the percentage change in monthly industrial production, at an annualized rate, and pcsp is the percentage change in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, also at an an- nualized rate.
(i) If the past three months of pcip are zero and pcsp-1 =0, what is the predicted growth in industrial production for this month? Is it statistically different from zero?
(ii) If the past three months of pcip are zero but pcsp-1 =10, what is the predicted growth in industrial production?
(iii) What do you conclude about the effects of the stock market on real economic activity?
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