Forecast the average annual food price index using

Reference no: EM13614971

The following table shows six years of average annual cost-of-living index data:

Year	Annual Cost of Living Index
2008	105.8
2009	111.4
2010	121.9
2011	134.3
2012	128.6
2013	125.2

(a) Forecast the average annual food price index for all years from 2008 to 2013. Use a 3-year weighted moving average with weights of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.2. Use the largest weight with the most recent data.

(b) Forecast the average annual food price index using exponential smoothing with ? = 0.7 for all years from 2008 to 2014. Use the rate for 2008 as the starting forecast for 2008.

(c) Which of the methods in parts (a) and (b) produces better forecasts for the 3 years from 2011 to 2013? Answer on the basis of mean square error (MAD).

Reference no: EM13614971

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