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Question: Essay - Your CEO has asked for your input on making a decision. Draw a decision tree diagram and advise the best decision:
Machine A costs $600k and has an output cost of $.80/unit.
Machine B costs $500k and has an output cost of $.60/unit.
Machine C costs $400k and has an output cost of $.50 unit.
The sales forecast from the Marketing Department is as follows:
Worst case scenario - 25% probability - 100k units sold.
Likely scenario - 50% probability - 200k units sold.
Best case scenario - 25% probability - 300k units sold.
Assume the machine is amortized over 10 years with no salvage value. Advise your CEO of the best machine to purchase based on the yearly cost.
Draw a decision tree with the expected values and advise which machine should be purchased.
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