Reference no: EM132308186

Table 1: Sales figure of pumpkins in a unit of thousands

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5

January 2000 3000 2000 5000 5000

February 3000 4000 5000 4000 2000

March 3000 3000 5000 4000 3000

April 3000 5000 3000 2000 2000

May 4000 5000 4000 5000 7000

June 6000 8000 6000 7000 6000

July 7000 3000 7000 10000 8000

August 6000 8000 10000 14000 10000

September 10000 12000 15000 16000 20000

October 12000 12000 15000 16000 20000

November 14000 16000 18000 20000 22000

December 8000 10000 8000 12000 8000

Total 78000 89000 98000 115000 113000

a) Make your forecast for “Year 6” by using two-ahead moving average method

b) Make your forecast for “Year 6” by using exponential smoothing (Hint: you should find the optimal value of α before starting your solution

c) Make your forecast for “Year 6” by using Holt’s method (β = 0.05 & use same α that you obtained in previous section)

d) Make your forecast for “Year 6” by using Winter’s method (β = 0.05 & use same α that you obtained in previous section)

e) Draw a single diagram to show your original data and four different forecasted values separately and make your comment.