Reference no: EM13981428

In the spring of 1987 Gary Hart, the leading Democratic presidential candidate, told the news media that he was more than willing to have his private life scrutinized carefully. A few weeks later, the Miami Herald reported that a woman, Donna Rice, had been seen en tering his Washington townhouse on a Friday evening but not leaving until Saturday evening. The result was a typical political scandal, with Hart contending that Rice had left Friday evening by a back door that the reporter on the scene was not watching. The result was that Hart's credibility as a candidate was severely damaged, thus reducing his chance of winning both the Democratic nomination and the election. The decision he had to make was whether to continue the campaign or to drop out. Compounding the issue was a heavy debt burden that was left over from his unsuccessful 1984 presidential bid.

Using both an influence diagram and a decision tree, structure Hart's decision. What is the main source of uncertainty that he faces? Are there conflicting objectives, and if so, what are they? What do you think he should have done? (He decided to drop out of the race. However, he eventually reentered, only to drop out again because of poor showings in the primary elections.)