Reference no: EM1316560

Developing project network using AOA that determines completion times.

Conference Planning Project

As the operations research expert on a conference planning team, you've been asked to look at the likelihood of completing the preparation work in time for the conference's start date.  Since the start date for the conference is known, you're under a lot of pressure to make sure the team can complete the work in time.  The activities to be performed, their times (in days), and the precedence constraints are as follows:

 

Activity	Predecessor	o	m	p
1	-	2	4	6
2	-	5	5	5
3	2	3	5	7
4	1	10	12	20
5	1	11	12	13
6	2, 4	5	6	7
7	3	9	10	11
8	3, 6	5	7	9
9	4	7	9	11
10	5	4	4	4
11	7	15	17	19
12	8	6	8	10
13	9, 10	7	8	15
14	7	12	14	16
15	12, 13	17	18	19

Question 1: Draw the network for this project.  You can use either AOA or AON.

Question 2: Build a project network in Excel to represent all of the paths. Show the time for each path through the network. Identify the critical path(s).  Specify the completion date (days from the start).

Question 3: Comment on the mean times and variance of the paths. Are any paths close in duration or highly variable?  In other words, are there are non-critical paths that you think could become critical?

Question 4: What completion date are you 80% confident of achieving? 40% confident?