Reference no: EM1319183
Q1) Annual world crude oil production, 1880 - 1998 (millions of barrels)
|
Year
|
Mbbl
|
Year
|
Mbbl
|
Year
|
Mbbl
|
|
1880
|
30
|
1945
|
2595
|
1976
|
20188
|
|
1890
|
77
|
1950
|
3803
|
1978
|
21922
|
|
1900
|
149
|
1955
|
5626
|
1980
|
21722
|
|
1905
|
215
|
1960
|
7674
|
1982
|
19411
|
|
1910
|
328
|
1962
|
8882
|
1984
|
19837
|
|
1915
|
432
|
1964
|
10310
|
1986
|
20246
|
|
1920
|
689
|
1966
|
12016
|
1988
|
21338
|
|
1925
|
1069
|
1968
|
14104
|
1990
|
22100
|
|
1930
|
1412
|
1970
|
16690
|
1992
|
22028
|
|
1935
|
1655
|
1972
|
18584
|
1994
|
22234
|
|
1940
|
2150
|
1974
|
20389
|
1996
|
23380
|
|
|
|
|
|
1998
|
24441
|
Data table gives information on world crude production from 1880 to 1998.
a) Produce scatter plot that shows the relationship between years since 1800 and crude oil production. Comments on what you see.
(b) It seems that no single model will explain the relationship between these variables effectively, Produce a scatter plot of data from 1880 to 1972. (Make sure to use years since 1800!) Use transformation to liberalize data, and then do an inverse transformation to obtain either a power or exponential model that describe the relationship. Give explanation for your choice of transformation with suitable statistical evidence.
(c) Use your model from (b) to forecast crude oil production in 1974. How comfortable do you feel with this prediction? Support your answer with suitable statistical evidence.
d) Now make a scatter plot of data from 1982 to 1998 (again, use years since 1800). Determine a linear, power, or exponential model that explains the crude oil production during this time period.
(e) Use your model from (d) to forecast crude oil production in 2002. How comfortable do you feel with this prediction? Support your answer with suitable statistical evidence.
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: Now make a scatter plot of data from 1982 to 1998 (again, use years since 1800). Determine a linear, power, or exponential model that explains the crude oil production during this time period.
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