Determine which forecasting model is more accurate using mad

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Reference no: EM131110213

1. The Harley-Davis motorcycle dealer in the Minneapolis St. Paul area wants to be able to forecast accurately the demand for the Roadhog Super motor cycle during the next month. From sales records, the dealer has accumulated the data in the following table for the past year.

Month Sales
January 9
February 7
March 10
April 8
May 7
June 12
July 10
August 11
September 12
October 10
November 14
December 16

a) Compute a 5-month moving average forecast for June through January.

2. The Chairperson of the Department of Business Administration at TSU wants to forecast the number of students who will enroll in Operations Management next semester in order to determine how many sections to schedule. The chair has accumulated the following data on enrollment for the past 8 semesters:

Semester Students Enrolled in OM
1 270
2 310
3 250
4 290
5 370
6 410
7 400
8 450

a) Compute an exponentially smoothed forecast for semester 9 (next semester) with α= 0.30. Use 270 as the forecast for the1st semester.

3. The manager of Sarah's Ice Cream store needs an accurate forecast of the demand for ice cream. She has collected the following data for the past 10 weeks:

Week Temperature Ice Cream Gallons Sold
1 75 95
2 67 90
3 83 125
4 89 150
5 77 85
6 80 115
7 84 110
8 92 145
9 89 130
10 65 100

a) Develop a regression equation for this data.

4. Temco Industries has developed two forecasting models that were used to forecast during a ten-month period. The forecasts and actual demand are shown as follows:

a) Determine which forecasting model is more accurate using MAD.

  Actual Forecast 1 2
Month Demand Demand Demand
1 160 170 165
2 150 165 157
3 175 157 166
4 200 166 183
5 190 183 186
6 220 186 203
7 205 203 204
8 210 204 207
9 200 207 203
10 220 203 210

Reference no: EM131110213

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