Solution-Determination of chance probability and respective

Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs

Assignment Help Basic Statistics

Reference no: EM131507487

Assignment: Probability Analysis

A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.

Options:

Facility Demand Options Probability Actions Expected Payoffs

Facility	Demand Options	Probability	Actions	Expected Payoffs

Large	Low Demand	0.4	Do Nothing	($10)
	Low Demand	0.4	Reduce Prices	$50
	High Demand	0.6		$70

Small	Low Demand	0.4		$40
	High Demand	0.6	Do Nothing	$40
	High Demand	0.6	Overtime	$50
	High Demand	0.6	Expand	$55

Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:

Build Small:
Low Demand	0.4($40)=$16
High Demand	0.6($55)=$33

Build Large:
Low Demand	0.4($50)=$20
High Demand	0.6($70)=$42

Determination of Expected Value of each alternative

Build Small: $16+$33=$49

Build Large: $20+$42=$62

Reference no: EM131507487

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Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs

Reference no: EM131507487

Reference no: EM131507487

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