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Assume that meteors greater than 100m in diameter strike the earth roughly every 5000 years, and that this process can be modeled by a Poisson distribution.
1. If a meteor of that size struck the earth exactly 100 years from now, what would be the chance that one or more further meteors of that size would strike the earth in the next 100 years after that?
2. Say that you are designing a space station to preserve humanity in the event of a large meteor strike. You wish to complete the space station in time such that there is a 90% probability no meteor of that size will hit the earth first. How many years do you have? (You can round to the nearest number of years for this question.)
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