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Emergency calls to the 911 system of Durham, North Carolina, for the past 24 weeks are shown in the following table:
WEEK
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
CALLS
50
35
25
40
45
20
30
15
13
14
16
17
18
19
21
22
23
24
55
60
75
65
a) Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week, and use a = .2. What is the forecast for week 25?
b) Reforecast each period using a = .6.
c) Actual calls during week 25 were 85. Which smoothing constant provides a superior forecast? Explain and justify the measure of error you used.
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