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Sales of quilt covers at Bud Banis's department store in Carbondale over the past year are shown below. Management prepared a forecast using a combination of exponential smoothing and its collective judgment for the 4 months (March, April, May, and June):
MONTH
UNIT SALES
MANAGMENTS FORECAST
July
100
August
93
September
96
October
110
November
121
December
119
January
92
February
83
March
101
120
April
114
May
89
June
108
a) Compute MAD and MAPE for management's technique.
b) Do management's results outperform (i.e., have smaller MAD and MAPE than) a naive forecast?
c) Which forecast do you recommend, based on lower forecast error?
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