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For the payoff table below, the decision maker will use P(s1) = .15, P(s2) = .5, and P(s3) = .35.
State of Nature
Decision
s1
s2
s3
d1
-5,000
1,000
10,000
d2
-15,000
-2,000
40,000
a. Calculate the expected values of all alternatives. What alternative would be chosen according to expected value?
b. For a lottery having a payoff of 40,000 with probability p and -15,000 with probability (1-p), the decision maker expressed the following indifference probabilities.
Payoff
Probability
.85
.60
.53
.50
c. Calculate the Expected Utility for all alternatives
d. What alternative would be chosen according to expected utility?
sales estimates are $120,000, $140,000, $160,000 also $180,000 for respective quarters. Seasonal indices for 4 quarters have been found to be 1.25, .90, .75 also 1.10, respectively. Compute a seasonal zed or adjusted sales forecast.
Minimal-spanning tree technique and Shortest-route technique
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