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Ariba Ltd produces a range of ground coffee for commercial use within cafés and restaurants. The company is looking to extend its business and is considering bidding for the franchise to operate a coffee bar within a local shopping centre.
Research suggests that over the one-year period of the franchise, income and costs are likely to be:
Sales Revenue (£)
Probability
30,000
0.1
40,000
0.2
60,000
0.4
70,000
80,000
Variable Costs £
12,000
20,000
0.5
28,000
0.3
The franchise licence cost will be £24,000.
Required
(a) Prepare a probability distribution table and using this table, calculate the probability of:
(1) Not making a loss;
(2) Earning a profit of at least £8,000
(b) Discuss the limitation of the expected value approach to assessing the risks of taking on the franchise. What other factors should be considered by Ariba Ltd?
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