Reference no: EM132441712

Problem:

Applying Confidence Intervals to Make Predictions

Two separate polling organizations have conducted polls for two candidates who are running for state senate, Gail Schultz and Raymond McGregor. The polls were taken from the same population, in the same state, and on the same day. 

The survey from the first company, Pollster Analytics, shows Gail having 49% of the potential vote. It also shows Raymond having an estimated 47% of likely voters. Both results reflect a margin of error of 2 percentage points (usually depicted as ±2%).

The survey from the second company, Polltastik, shows Raymond at 49% and Gail at 46%. This survey has a 3-percentage-point margin of error (±3%).

Compare the outcomes of the surveys in the scenario and apply the concept of confidence intervals to make a prediction for the upcoming election, as well as discuss their implications.

An explanation of how you applied confidence intervals to make predictions about the outcome of a political campaign. In your explanation, address the following:

• After reviewing both polls, what is now known about who might be ahead in the race? Explain who is ahead and why.
• Explain what the implications of these polls are for the campaign managers for Gail and Raymond.