Analysing a service contract using simulation

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Reference no: EM13180027

Suppose a simulation model has two random variables (eg. 'arrival time' and

'service time' in a queuing problem).  What is wrong, if anything, with drawing a single random number on each trial and using this single number to determine the value for both random variables?

Analysing a service contract using simulation

The IDG Medical Fund is being considered as a group insurer for the employees of a large public company.  If IDG wins the contract and insures the group, the daily frequency of claims is estimated as follows:

Number of Claims

0

Relative Frequency

0.05

1

0.06

2

0.08

3

0.10

4

0.33

5

0.14

6

0.11

7

0.07

8

0.04

9

0.02

 

1.00

The probability distribution of the cost of each claim has been estimated using historical data and is as follows:

Average Cost per Claim

$800

Probability

0.30

900

0.24

1000

0.22

1100

0.18

1200

0.06

 

1.00

(a) What is the probability that there will be 4 claims or fewer per day?

(b) Using the following random numbers from left to right simulate a 5-day working week and calculate the expected weekly cash outflow in settlement of claims.

Random numbers:               Random numbers: Number of Claims                                                Cost per Claim

40, 71, 18, 77, 42                   14, 56, 20, 76, 29

Reference no: EM13180027

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