A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive

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OM 503: Operations Management - Final Exam

1.

A moving average forecast tends to be more responsive to recent changes in the data series when more data points are included in the average.

 A) True

 B) False

2.

A weighted moving average assigns equal weight to each data point that is represented by the average.

 A) True

 B) False

3.

A smoothing constant of .5 will cause an exponential smoothing forecast to react more quickly to a sudden change than a value of .1 will.

 A) True

 B) False

4.

Removing the seasonal component from a time series (deseasonalizing) can be accomplished by multiplying each data point by its appropriate seasonal relative/index.

 A) True

 B) False

5.

In the ABC inventory classification system, C items are ideal candidates for a JIT ordering.

 A) True

 B) False

6.

Inspection of goods for quality and quantity upon arrival is part of holding/carrying costs cost.

 A) True

 B) False

7.

Inventory carrying cost is a positively related to the order size Q.

 A) True

 B) False

8.

A process that exhibits random variability would be judged to be “out of control”.

 A) True

 B) False

9.

“Range” control charts are used mainly with attribute data.

 A) True

 B) False

10.

A c-chart is used to monitor the fraction of defectives in the output of a process.

 A) True

 B) False

11.

The presence of patterns of data on a control chart (e.g., a trend) suggests that the process may generate non-random variation.

 A) True

 B) False

12.

Attribute data are counted – variable data are measured.

 A) True

 B) False

13.

Range control charts are used to monitor process central tendency.

 A) True

 B) False

14.

An advantage of a “level capacity” strategy over a “chase” strategy for aggregate planning is that inventories can be kept relatively lower using level capacity.

 A) True

 B) False

15.

Interest and insurance are typically associated with holding costs.

 A) True

 B) False

16.

Repeated spikes in a time series at equally spaced intervals is an example of

 A) seasonal variation

 B) cycles

 C) irregular variation

 D) trend

 E) random variation

17.

Using the latest observation in a sequence of data to forecast the next period is:

 A) a moving average forecast

 B) a naive forecast

 C) an exponentially smoothed forecast

 D) an associative forecast

 E) none of the above

18.

Which of the following smoothing constants would make an exponential smoothing forecast equivalent to a naive forecast?

 A) 0

 B) .01

 C) .1

 D) .5

 E) 1.0

19.

Given an actual demand of 59, a previous forecast of 64, and an alpha of .3, what would the forecast for the next period be using simple exponential smoothing?

 A) 36.9

 B) 57.5

 C) 60.5

 D) 62.5

 E) none of the above

 

 

20.

Which one of the following possible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most quickly to forecast errors (i.e., to a sudden change in the data)?

 A) 0

 B) 1

 C) .05

 D) .10

 E) .15

21.

Given forecast errors of 4, 8, and -3, what is the mean absolute deviation (MAD)?

 A) 3

 B) 5

 C) 9

 D) 15

 E) none of the above

22.

Given the following historical data, what is the simple three-period moving average forecast for period 6?

Period Value Period Value

1 73 4 72

2 68 5 67

3 65  

 A) 67

 B) 115

 C) 69

 D) 68

 E) 68.67

23.

Assume the following time series data:

Time Acutal

1 15

2 17

3 16

4 18

5 22

6 21

If simple exponential smoothing was applied to forecast period 7, how much weight does this forecasting technique assign to actual observation 6, assuming alpha=0.70?

 A) 0.75

 B) 1

 C) 0

 D) 0.70

 E) none of the above

24.

Consider the following time series data:

Day Sales

Monday 100

Tuesday 110

Wednesday 120

Thursday 100

Friday 90

Monday 98

Tuesday 108

Wednesday 122

Thursday 99

Friday 80

The seasonal index for Wednesday is:

 A) 1.41

 B) 1.32

 C) 1.18

 D) 1.25

 E) none of the above

25.

Costs of inspectors, testing, and test equipment are examples of:

 A) internal failure costs

 B) external failure costs

 C) appraisal costs

 D) prevention costs

 E) replacement costs

26.

The quality control improvement tool which distinguishes between the "important few" and the "trivial many" quality problems is:

 A) control chart.

 B) check sheets.

 C) Pareto analysis.

 D) cause-and-effect diagrams.

 E) Scatter diagrams

27.

Scrap and rework costs are most closely associated with:

 A) internal failure costs

 B) external failure costs

 C) appraisal costs

 D) prevention costs

 E) conformance costs

28.

Which quality improvement tool allows you to visually depict if there is a linear relationship between two variables:

 A) scatter diagrams

 B) control charts

 C) flow charts

 D) check sheets

 E) cause-and-effect diagrams

29.

Warranty service, processing of complaints, and costs of litigation are examples of:

 A) internal failure costs

 B) external failure costs

 C) appraisal costs

 D) prevention costs

 E) replacement costs

30.

The quality control improvement tool that resembles a "fishbone" is:

 A) brainstorming

 B) check sheets

 C) Pareto analysis

 D) cause-and-effect diagrams

 E) fail-safe methods

31.

A control chart used to monitor the process mean is the:

 A) p-chart

 B) R-chart

 C) x-bar chart

 D) c-chart

 E) Gantt chart

32.

For which of the following activities would a p-chart be used? To monitor…

 A) average shrinkage

 B) dispersion in sample data

 C) the fraction defective

 D) the number of defects per unit

 E) the range of values

33.

The range chart (R-chart) is most likely to detect a change in:

 A) proportion

 B) mean

 C) number defective

 D) variability

 E) sample size

34.

The purpose of control charts is to:

 A) estimate the proportion of output that is acceptable

 B) weed out defective items

 C) determine if the output is within tolerances/specifications

 D) distinguish between random variation and assignable variation in the process

 E) provide meaningful work for quality inspectors

35.

Which term is most closely associated with the term “aggregate plan disaggregation”?

 A) subcontracting

 B) master production schedule

 C) diversity

 D) varying inventory levels

 E) firing and laying off

36.

The goal of the basic EOQ model is to:

 A) minimize order size

 B) minimize order cost

 C) minimize holding cost

 D) minimize the sum of purchasing and ordering costs

 E) minimize the sum of ordering and holding costs

37.

An approach to locational analysis that includes both qualitative and quantitative considerations is:

 A) locational cost-volume

 B) factor rating

 C) transportation model

 D) expected value

 E) financial analysis

38.

A manufacturing firm is considering two locations for a plant to produce a new product. The two locations have fixed and variable costs as follows:

Location Fixed Costs Variable Costs

Atlanta $80,000/yr $20/unit

Phoenix $140,000/yr $16/unit

At what annual output would the company be indifferent between the two locations?

 A) 60,000 units

 B) 15,000 units

 C) 10,000 units

 D) 20,000 units

 E) none of the above

39.

A location analysis has been narrowed down to three locations. The critical factors, their weights, and the ratings for each location are shown below:

Factor Wt. Location

  A B C

Labor Cost .4 70 80 90

Transp. Cost .2 80 80 60

Market Access .2 90 70 60

Raw Mat'l. Access .1 50 70 90

Utility Cost .1 80 90 70

What is the composite score for location B?

 A) 76

 B) 75

 C) 78

 D) 74

 E) 76.33

40.

The transportation model method for evaluating location alternatives minimizes:

 A) the number of sources

 B) the number of destinations

 C) total supply

 D) total demand

 E) total shipping cost

41.

A clothing manufacturer produces clothing in five locations in the U. S. In a move to vertical integration, the company is planning a new fabric production plant that will supply fabric to all five clothing plants. The clothing plants have been located on a coordinate system as follows:

Location (X,Y)

A 7,2

B 4,7

C 5,5

D 6,2

E 8,4

If the shipments of fabric to each plant are equal, what is the optimal location for the fabric plant?

 A) 5,5

 B) 6,4

 C) 4,6

 D) 6,2

 E) 5,4

42.

Inventory information for firm ABC:

Inventory at the end of March, 1999: 200 units

Expected demand during April, 1999: 50 units

Production expected during April, 1999 100 units

What is the expected inventory at the end of April, 1999?

 A) 350

 B) 250

 C) 150

 D) 50

 E) none of the above

43.

Ann Chovies, owner of the Perfect Pasta Pizza Parlor, uses 20 pounds of pepperoni each day in preparing pizzas. Ordering costs for pepperoni are $10.00 per order, and carrying costs are 4 cents per pound per day. Lead time for each order is 3 days. What is the economic order quantity for pepperoni?

 A) 20 pounds

 B) 40 pounds

 C) 60 pounds

 D) 80 pounds

 E) 100 pounds

44.

Ann Chovies, owner of the Perfect Pasta Pizza Parlor, uses 20 pounds of pepperoni each day in preparing pizzas. Ordering costs for pepperoni are $10.00 per order, and carrying costs are 4 cents per pound per day. Lead time for each order is 3 days. At what point should she reorder pepperoni?

 A) 20 pounds remaining

 B) 40 pounds remaining

 C) 60 pounds remaining

 D) 80 pounds remaining

 E) 100 pounds remaining

45.

The Imperial Flack Jacket Company currently ships all products out of two factories to two government warehouses. Because of increasing demand, another factory will have to be built. The company has two possible locations in mind and is currently trying to choose between them using the LP transportation method. Data on monthly shipping and receiving volumes and per unit shipping costs are:

Production

Factory Warehouse 1 Warehouse 2 capacity

Existing A $2.80 $3.45 2,000

Existing B $2.50 $4.10 3,500

Proposed C $3.25 $3.10 4,000

Proposed D $2.95 $3.55 4,000

Min. Demand 5,000 4,000  

How many decision variables are involved in either formulation?

 A) 2

 B) 3

 C) 4

 D) 5

 E) 6

Reference no: EM13909825

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