Q1 Create a graph of widget sales on the tab "Q1-Graph" and characterize the time series.  That is, does the time series appear to include the effects of (1) cyclicality, (1) seasonality, (1) trend, (1) irregular variation and, or (1) noise?  Please characterize each effect as appropriate.

Q2 Prepare the following forecasting methods using the template provided on "Data" tab and assess how well each method is performing (RSFE, MAD, MSE, and MAPE using the appropriate columns from I-AF) and indicate which method is performing the best and why:

A. 3-month moving average (use "Data" tab, column C)

B. 6-month moving average (use "Data" tab, column D)

C. 3-month weighted moving average (.65, .2, .15) (use "Data" tab, column E)

D. Single exponential smoothing (α=.3), enter smoothing constant into cell F2 and use this cell in the calculations for SES (Use "Data" tab, column F)

Q3:  Create a graph of widget Sales on tab "Q3-Graph" and then add to the graph the forecasts that you calculated in Q2.

Posted Date: 2/25/2013 6:03:22 AM | Location : United States

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