Probability testing

Assignment Help Science
Reference no: EM13837433

Probability Testing

You almost certainly engage in decision making every day. Usually, you choose an option because you believe that it will have a more pleasing outcome than the other choice(s). If you knew your likelihood of succeeding or failing, you would have an even easier time making a decision. Each decision you make is influenced by probability.

As you would expect, psychologists like to keep the probability of coming to false conclusions in research as low as possible, though you know that it is almost impossible to make a decision that is entirely free of error. But what are the implications of making different types of errors? Are all errors equally dangerous, or do some have more critical importance than others? Consider the four possible decisions a jury could reach in a murder trial when the sentence is the death penalty. If the jury's verdict is correct, either an innocent defendant goes free or a guilty defendant is convicted. However, what about when the jury makes an error, and a guilty defendant goes free or an innocent man is convicted? How do we calculate the probability of each of these types of errors?

Probability tests might help you make decisions of low importance, such as purchasing goods, but they can also play a role in making critically important decisions. For example, scientists often use probability to evaluate the safety of drugs for human use. This Discussion presents an exercise in probability in the context of a research study for a new drug to treat depression.

To prepare for this Discussion, review the textbook sections on probability and Type I and Type II errors.


Imagine that a pharmaceutical company is testing a new medication to treat major depression in people whose symptoms have not been helped by existing medications. You are part of a panel of professionals who must decide if the drug should be considered safe for human trials. The null hypothesis is that the drug is considered to be safe. The alternative hypothesis is that the drug is considered to be unsafe.

1. Keeping in mind that errors are interpreted in relation to the hypotheses, interpret the results of the study if a Type I error had been made. Next, interpret the results of the study if a Type II error was made. That is, explain what Type I and Type II errors would look like in this scenario.

2. Based on your interpretation of Type I and Type II errors, which do you think would be worse to make in this study and why?

3. Discuss what would be better to use - an alpha of .05 or an alpha of .01 in this study. Explain and provide a rationale for your choice.

Reference no: EM13837433

What type of premises does the following argument have

What type of premises does the following argument have?: "The MiniMax video camera is the best camera to buy because it's the lightest in weight, it's the least expensive,

The ceo of abc manufacturing commissioned a study

The CEO of ABC manufacturing commissioned a study to look at the differences between the current salaries of her employees (n = 474) and their starting salaries. The study col

State the research question

State the research question(s) addressed by the experiment.2). In a brief series of bulleted points, describe what is known (and what is not known) about the research question

Bronfenbrenner ecological model and its importance

Your good friends have just adopted a four-year-old child. At this point, the only socialization decision they have made is that the child is going to preschool. Imagine tha

Descripition of organism in current biome

Make a list identifying at least ten organisms-at least five plants and five animals-that live in your biome, and describe how these organisms interact with one another.

Prepare for the sale of toronto marlies tickets

The purpose of this assignment is to outline the process you went through to prepare for the sale of Toronto Marlies Tickets, what strategies and tactics you employed in the

Describe the hybrid model of crisis intervention

Describe the hybrid model of crisis intervention. Provide specific examples of how each facet of the hybrid model of crisis intervention is illustrated. Discuss which listenin

Description the american dust bowl

Explain human population growth in terms of carrying capacity. How does this differ from organisms that exist in natural ecosystems? Explain how population growth for human


Write a Review

Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd