Discuss what is the posterior probabilities

Assignment Help Microeconomics
Reference no: EM131523998

Question: It is said that Napoleon assessed probabilities at the Battle of Waterloo in 1815. His hopes for victory depended on keeping the English and Prussian armies separated. Believing that they had not joined forces on the morning of the fateful battle, he indicated his belief that he had a 90% chance of defeating the English; P(Napoleon Wins) = 0.90. When told later that elements of the Prussian force had joined the English, Napoleon revised his opinion downward on the basis of this information, but his posterior probability was still 60%; P(Napoleon Wins | Prussian and English Join Forces) = 0.60. Suppose Napoleon were using Bayes' theorem to revise his information. To do so, he would have had to make some judgments about P(Prussian and English Join Forces | Napoleon Wins) and P(Prussian and English Join Forces | Napoleon Loses). In particular, he would have had to judge the ratio of these two probabilities. Based on the previously stated prior and posterior probabilities, what is that ratio?

Reference no: EM131523998

Questions Cloud

What is the value of a share of stephens stock : The required rate of return for stock of similar risk is 10%. What is the value of a share of Stephens’ stock?
Effectiveness of the fiscal and monetary policies : Discuss and analyse the effectiveness of the fiscal and monetary policies employed in 2009, illustrating with aggregate demand-aggregate supply models.
Compare characteristics of leadership and management : Explain how organizations function.Evaluate effectiveness of communications patterns using specific management situations.
Research and locate a current-events article : Research and locate a current-events article or video that, like the example article from Tulsa World, depicts ethical or unethical practices
Discuss what is the posterior probabilities : It is said that Napoleon assessed probabilities at the Battle of Waterloo in 1815. His hopes for victory depended on keeping the English and Prussian armies.
What is the expected capital gains yield : What is the current yield? What is the expected capital gains (or loss) yield for the coming year?
Government of a country imposes trade restrictions : If the government of a country imposes trade restrictions on the import of a certain good, the country will gain a comparative advantage.
Number of male customers : The manager of a Vancouver night club has observed that the number of male customers who visit the clubs follows as poisson distribution.
Should you drop your decision-analysis course : The problem is that you do not know how well you will do in the course. You can, however, assess a distribution for your score.

Reviews

Write a Review

Microeconomics Questions & Answers

  The free rider problem

Question: Explain why the free rider problem makes it difficult for perfectly competitive markets to provide the Pareto efficient level of a public good.

  Failure of the super committee is good thing for economy

Some commentators have argued that the failure of the “Super committee” is good thing for the economy?  Do you agree?

  Case study analysis about optimum resource allocation

Case study analysis about optimum resource allocation: -  Why might you suspect (even without evidence) that the economy might not be able to produce all the schools and clinics the Ministers want? What constraints are there on an economy's productio..

  Fixed cost and vairiable cost

Questions:  :   Which of the following are likely to be fixed costs and which variable costs for a chocolate factory over the course of a month?  Explain your choice.

  Problem - total cost, average cost, marginal cost

Problem - Total Cost, Average Cost, Marginal Cost: -  Complete the following table of costs for a firm.  (Note: enter the figures in the  MC   column  between  outputs of  0 and 1, 1 and 2, 2 and 3, etc.)

  Oligopoly and demand curve problem

Problem based on Oligopoly and demand curve,  Draw and explain the demand curve facing each firm, and given this demand curve, does this mean that firms in the jeans industry do or do not compete against one another?

  Impact of external costs on resource allocation

Explain the impact of external costs and external benefits on resource allocation;  Why are public goods not produced in sufficient quantities by private markets?  Which of the following are examples of public goods (or services)? Delete the incorrec..

  Shifts in demand and movements along the demand curve

Describe the differences between shifts in demand and movements along the demand curve. What are the main factors which can shift the demand curve? Explain why they cause the demand curve to shift. Use examples and draw graphs to support your discuss..

  Article review question

Article Review Question: Read the following excerpts from the article "Fruit, veg costs surge' by Todd, Dagwell, published in the Herald on January 25th 2011 and answer questions below:

  Long-term growth, international trade & globalization

Long-term Growth, International Trade & Globalization:- This question deals with concepts such as long-term growth, international trade and globalization. Questions related to trade deficit, trade surplus, gains from trade, an international trade sce..

  European monetary union (emu) in crisis

"Does the economic bailout of Spain and Greece spell the beginning of the end for the European Monetary Union (EMU)?"

  Development game “settlers of catan”

Read the rules of the game, the overview and the almanac for the Development Game "Settlers of Catan"

Free Assignment Quote

Assured A++ Grade

Get guaranteed satisfaction & time on delivery in every assignment order you paid with us! We ensure premium quality solution document along with free turntin report!

All rights reserved! Copyrights ©2019-2020 ExpertsMind IT Educational Pvt Ltd